Nifty 50 Q1 Earnings Seen Rising On Strong Core Growth Despite Global Headwinds
India Inc is expected to deliver resilient first-quarter earnings for FY27, supported by healthy domestic demand and robust performance across sectors such as industrials, automobiles, energy and financials, even as global uncertainties, elevated commodity prices and geopolitical tensions weigh on some industries.According to Antique Stock Broking's 1QFY27 earnings preview, Nifty 50 companies, excluding financials, commodities and a few large companies, are projected to post 15.1 per cent year-on-year revenue growth, 13 per cent growth in Ebitda and an 8.9 per cent rise in profit after tax (PAT). Across its broader coverage universe, revenue, Ebitda and PAT are expected to increase 15.7 per cent, 13.7 per cent and 8.8 per cent, respectively.
The brokerage said Ebitda growth is likely to be the strongest since the second quarter of FY24, reflecting resilient corporate profitability despite higher input costs.
Industrials, autos and energy to lead growth
The report expects strong operating profit growth from building materials, metals, electronics manufacturing services (EMS), industrials, defence, automobiles, non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), consumer durables and energy companies excluding oil marketing firms.
Industrial companies are forecast to report 13 per cent year-on-year revenue growth and a 19 per cent increase in PAT, supported by strong transmission and distribution (T&D) capital expenditure, healthy order books and continued investment in power, data centres and urban infrastructure.
NBFCs are also expected to post a strong quarter, with assets under management (AUM) projected to grow around 21 per cent year-on-year and earnings rising nearly 29 per cent, driven by improving demand in affordable housing finance and vehicle financing.
In the utilities sector, power demand rose 9 per cent year-on-year during the quarter due to intense summer heat, while electricity generation increased by a similar pace. However, overall PAT growth for the sector is expected to remain modest at around 1 per cent despite healthy revenue and Ebitda growth.
IT, oil marketing firms among laggards
The report expects India's IT services sector to remain under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty and AI-led productivity gains continue to delay client spending decisions and lengthen deal conversion cycles. Large IT firms are expected to report organic constant currency revenue growth ranging from a decline of 1.6 per cent to an increase of 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter, while management commentary is likely to turn more cautious.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are projected to report one of their weakest quarters, with marketing losses from elevated crude oil prices outweighing gains from strong refining margins. By contrast, upstream oil producers are expected to benefit from higher crude price realisations and a weaker rupee.
The brokerage also expects pharmaceuticals, cement, agrochemicals and FMCG companies to lag broader market earnings growth during the quarter.
Hotels, retail remain resilient
Domestic consumption is expected to remain a bright spot.
The hospitality sector is likely to report another resilient quarter despite higher airfares and travel disruptions linked to the West Asia conflict. Strong domestic tourism, rescheduled weddings and large events are expected to support hotel occupancy and room rates.
Retail demand is also projected to stay healthy, with jewellery benefiting from the wedding season, premium fashion witnessing improved demand and quick-service restaurants (QSRs) seeing sequential improvement, although operating cost inflation may keep margins under pressure.
Valuations remain attractive
Beyond the earnings season, Antique believes Indian equities are trading at more attractive valuations after recent market corrections.
The brokerage expects Nifty 50 earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 16 per cent between FY26 and FY28, supported by strong earnings growth across banks, industrials, NBFCs, telecom and energy.
It also noted that while higher commodity prices may create near-term margin pressure, India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain supportive, with domestic demand staying resilient and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows expected to improve in the coming quarters.
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