India's power sector has entered a new phase where the biggest challenge is no longer producing enough electricity but ensuring power is available when it is needed, according to a new working paper released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).
Titled The Duck and The Camel: Tracing the Net Load on the Indian Power Grid, the paper argues that rapid growth in solar capacity has fundamentally changed the way India's power system operates, making large-scale battery storage and flexible grid management critical for future energy security.
The study notes that on 21 May 2026, India recorded its highest-ever electricity demand of 270.8 GW. However, while demand peaked during the afternoon, electricity prices hit their maximum only after sunset, highlighting how the decline in solar generation creates significant pressure on the grid.
The paper says India's power system has evolved from being constrained by generation capacity to being constrained by flexibility—its ability to rapidly adjust supply as solar generation rises and falls through the day.
'Duck' in summer, 'Camel' in winter
Using 15-minute interval grid data, the report identifies two distinct seasonal patterns in India's electricity demand.
During summer, the country's net load—total demand minus solar generation—forms the well-known "duck curve", characterised by a deep midday dip when solar generation is abundant, followed by a steep evening ramp as solar output disappears.
In winter, however, the grid resembles a double-humped "Bactrian camel", with electricity demand peaking both in the morning and evening while solar creates a trough during midday.
The paper highlights that the evening ramp during summer has doubled from around 36 GW in May 2023 to approximately 74 GW in May 2026, while the morning decline in conventional generation has nearly tripled during the same period.
Midday surplus contrasts with evening shortages
The analysis finds that India increasingly has excess electricity during daylight hours but faces shortages after sunset.
Average electricity prices in the Indian Energy Exchange's Day Ahead Market have fallen sharply during solar hours, reaching as low as Rs 1.11 per unit in May 2026, while evening prices have climbed close to the exchange's Rs 10 per unit ceiling. The spread between peak and trough prices has widened significantly over the past three years, indicating growing imbalance between daytime surplus and evening demand.
The study also points out that the grid curtailed an average of 24 GWh of solar energy every day during May 2026—equivalent to more than one-quarter of Delhi's average daily electricity consumption—because the system could not absorb the excess renewable power.
Meanwhile, during April and May 2026, shortages occurred on only six days during solar-hour peaks but on 36 out of 61 days during non-solar evening peaks, reinforcing that India's supply challenge now lies after sunset rather than during the day.
Battery storage gap remains substantial
The report identifies battery energy storage systems (BESS) as the most effective solution to smooth daily fluctuations in demand and renewable generation.
It estimates that flattening just half of a typical summer evening demand ramp would require around 130 GWh of battery discharge, compared with India's average daily storage discharge of only 23.8 GWh during May 2026.
The paper also notes that while pumped hydro storage has nearly met national targets, battery deployment remains significantly behind projections. Although India's battery storage capacity has recently increased to about 2.7 GW, the gap remains considerable relative to future requirements.
The authors cite California's experience as evidence that large-scale battery deployment can successfully reduce evening grid stress by storing surplus solar energy during the day and releasing it during peak demand hours.
Policy reforms support transition
The working paper says proposed amendments to the Electricity Act and Electricity (Rights of Consumers) Rules would strengthen India's ability to integrate renewable energy by legally recognising energy storage, promoting demand response programmes, expanding power markets, introducing stronger non-fossil purchase obligations and accelerating time-of-day electricity tariffs.
According to the authors, these reforms will help build the flexibility required as India's renewable energy capacity continues to expand. |
