India's steel market is expected to remain divided in the coming months, with long steel prices likely to stay under pressure due to weak monsoon-season demand and elevated inventories, while flat steel prices are expected to remain relatively stable, according to a report by Centrum.
The brokerage said domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices remained largely unchanged in June, supported by safeguard duties on imports and firm global prices. However, primary rebar prices declined around 9 per cent month-on-month, reversing part of the gains seen since late 2025.
Centrum attributed the correction in long steel prices to slower construction activity during the monsoon, higher inventories, aggressive discounts by traders and increased competition from secondary rebar producers.
The weakness extended into July, with spot HRC prices falling around Rs 210 per tonne from June averages, while primary rebar prices declined by about Rs 3,020 per tonne over the same period.
Global steel prices moved in different directions during June. US HRC prices increased around 3 per cent month-on-month, marking the eighth consecutive monthly gain. In contrast, European HRC prices fell around 4 per cent for the second straight month, while China's export HRC prices edged down around 1 per cent after six months of increases.
Raw Material Movement
Among key raw materials, Australian iron ore prices declined around 7 per cent month-on-month. In the domestic market, NMDC reduced lump ore prices by Rs 250 per tonne and fine ore prices by Rs 150 per tonne.
Australian coking coal prices rose around 2 per cent from the previous month and were 36 per cent higher than a year earlier, supported by tighter supplies and stronger demand from China. South African non-coking coal prices remained broadly unchanged on a monthly basis but were still 22 per cent above year-ago levels.
The report also noted that prices of 304-grade stainless steel declined around 3 per cent month-on-month in June, although they remained nearly 19 per cent higher than a year earlier. In the non-ferrous segment, aluminium was the weakest-performing metal during the month.
Centrum said the domestic steel pricing environment is likely to remain mixed in the near term. It expects flat steel prices to stay supported by lower imports and stable raw material costs, while long steel prices may continue to face pressure until construction activity improves after the monsoon season. |
